The Black Swan

The Incerto series by Nassim Taleb, specially The Black Swan and Antifragile. It is hard to make predictions, specially about the future, some good heuristics may be of help.

The Black Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Entrepreneurship Negotiation by Dinnar and Susskind covers some of the most fundamental topics anyone wanting to become an entrepreneur must know. I also find Richard Thaler work (Nudge, Misbehaving) very helpful particularly if you are in the B2C domain. The Black Swan by Taleb is another book I find myself going back to often; it's been of great help for decision making under lots of uncertainty.

Came here to say Thinking Fast and Slow by Kahneman and The Black Swan by Taleb. I don't know if it's strictly applicable to OP's question - but these books shaped how I see the world more than anything in life - and I think my view is way more accurate and I'm infinitely happier as a result. In these conditions, I think problem solving becomes a lot easier...

That would be a long list, given that I read a lot of books and would generally say that most of the books I've read were worth investing time in to some extent. But for what it's worth, here's a subset, cribbed from my previous HN comments: Something Deeply Hidden - Sean Carroll The Universe Speaks in Numbers: How Modern Math Reveals Nature's Deepest Secrets - Graham Farmelo The Man Who Loved Only Numbers: The Story of Paul Erdos and the Search for Mathematical Truth - Paul Hoffman The Man Who Knew Infinity: A Life of the Genius Ramanujan - Robert Kanigel Lost in Math - Sabine Hossenfelder The First Three Minutes - Steven Weinberg Hyperspace - Michio Kaku Not Even Wrong - Peter Woit The Trouble With Physics - Lee Smolin About Time - Paul Davies Time Reborn - Lee Smolin The Elegant Universe - Brian Greene The Hidden Reality - Brian Greene The Fabric of the Cosmos - Brian Greene Quantum Space: Loop Quantum Gravity and the Search for the Structure of Space, Time, and the Universe - Jim Baggott The Universe Speaks in Numbers: How Modern Math Reveals Nature's Deepest Secrets - Graham Farmelo Three Roads To Quantum Gravity - Lee Smolin…

Incerto by Nassim Taleb. Best piece of work I've ever read. I'm re-reading it, and still... what a masterpiece, a mind-blowing piece of work. Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, and Antifragile remain my "Holy Trinity" of books. You just couldn't stop reading them.

Random Walk and Black Swan are two good reads. Even if you end up not agreeing with the two's takes, they'll make you sufficiently skeptical of how well a book claims to explain the industry, which is a good position to approach it from. My bias will show, but the industry routinely blows itself on sometimes small or sometimes very large scales, sometimes or often through devices of its own creation. It's important to know that the system is entirely capable of doing this to itself, and therefore the system, and those in it, may not be able to explain itself well. Edit: another thing worth reading is Too Big to Fail, The Big Short, and Greatest Trade Ever. All are engaging books, and really walk through how 2008 started and ended through different perspectives of the system. TBtF will cover the Fed and Tier 1. BS/GTE cover the sell side. And then when you pair GTE with what happened to it's focus, John Paulson, after 2008, in that he didn't really have a repeat 'win,' it's a good anecdote for what I said above.

The entire Incerto book series by Taleb (which includes Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan) are awesome and they are talking about big catastrophic events like the current one. This pandemic is a classic Black Swan event: it's a surprise, it has a major impact and lots of experts will try to say that it was easily foreseeable in hindsight.

The Black Swan by Taleb and Thinking, Fast and Slow by Kahneman are two books that pretty much completely changed how I view the world, and have made me much happier as a direct result.

Ah, a fellow NNT fan! I am curious; what is your opinion of his works and the man himself? I had read (a long time ago) "Fooled by Randomness" and "The Black Swan" and the thing i remember most is his definitions of Extremistan/Mediocristan (from the latter book) and our inability to understand "random chance" leading to a tendency to see patterns and devise explanations where there are none (eg. Causation vs. Correlation vs. Randomness) I find his writings thought-provoking but difficult to understand (eg. Differences between Randomness, Uncertainty, Probability and Risk) and sometimes quite nihilistic.

Funny, that jibes with my perception of Taleb as well. He seems a bit smug, and I'm not sure if I'd like him or not if we met in person, but his books still seem valuable and worth reading. I would say that I'm better off for having read both The Black Swan and Fooled by Randomness. Still waiting to get around to reading Anti-Fragile, but it's definitely on the list.

Adding the Taleb book to my list. I recently read "The Black Swan" which I thought was an important read in spite of how unlikeable I find the author, how long the book is, and how tangled up the ideas are. It felt like a bit of a crazy rant, but worthwhile. Thanks!

Not the only one. I think most of his books are actually prolonged intentionally arrogant blog posts sprinkled with pseudo-science and weightlifting metaphors with the recurrent 'fuck you money' motif. Black swan, the concept which brought him in the spotlight is somewhat valid but it's worth at most a chapter in a risk management book. But he milks the black swan cow to biblical proportions. Antifragile is so longwinded it's an exercise in attention and patience. I think it's remarkable how he managed to fill so many pages. In my view, Taleb resides close to Malcolm Gladwell and Seth Godin, the 'thought leaders' experts at rebranding/refactoring common concepts and milking the proverbial cow in publishing, speaking events, etc..

- Nassim N. Taleb: Black Swan and Antifragile[0] - Robert Cialdini: Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion[1] - Franklin Foer: World Without Mind: The Existential Threat of Big Tech[2] - Herbert Marcuse: One-Dimensional Man: Studies in the Ideology of Advanced Industrial Society[3] [0] https://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Frag... (https://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Fragility/dp/081297381X) [1] https://www.amazon.com/Influence-Psychology-Persuasion-Rober... (https://www.amazon.com/Influence-Psychology-Persuasion-Robert-Cialdini/dp/006124189X) [2] https://www.amazon.com/World-Without-Mind-Existential-Threat... (https://www.amazon.com/World-Without-Mind-Existential-Threat/dp/1101981113) [3] https://www.amazon.com/One-Dimensional-Man-Ideology-Industri... (https://www.amazon.com/One-Dimensional-Man-Ideology-Industrial-Routledge/dp/0415289777)

I was going to say the exact same thing!

Fooled By Randomness & The Black Swan by Taleb

The following list will introduce you to Western Economic Philosophy as it relates to modern history specifically. This list is weighted heavily toward neo-classical economics and does not get into computational model based economics - specifically microeconomics, which comprises the bulk of economics education today: Schumpeter - History of economic analysis Adam Smith - Theory of Moral Sentiments Kaynes - The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money Marx - Capital Benjamin Graham - The Intelligent Investor Galbraith - The Affluent Society Galbraith - The Great Crash Milton Friedman - Capitalism and Freedom Nassim Taleb - Black Swan Ron Suskind - Confidence Men Scott Patterson - Dark Pools If you want to delve into heterodox economics afterward, start with the following: Hayek - Individualism and Economic Order Mises - Human Action Rothbard - Man, Economy, State

Thinking, Fast and Slow - Daniel Kahneman. Learn why we're fools by nature. Incerto - Nassim Nicholas Taleb (4 volumes, with The Black Swan as my favourite). Learn how not to be a fool, or at least, minimize its impacts. The Startup Owner's Manual - Steve Blank. Learn how to find your way through the market.

I'm sure there are many, but a few that jump to mind, in no particular order, and spanning both fiction and non-fiction: The Selfish Gene - Dawkins A New Kind of Science - Wolfram The Singularity is Near - Kurzweil Gödel, Escher, Bach - Hofstadter Fluid Concepts and Creative Analogies - Hofstadter Atlas Shrugged - Rand The Fountainhead - Rand Nineteen Eighty-Four - Orwell The Trouble With Physics - Lee Smolin Time Reborn - Lee Smolin Ambient Findability - Peter Morville Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Software - Steven Johnson Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age - Duncan Watts Linked: How Everything Is Connected to Everything Else and What It Means for Business, Science, and Everyday Life - Albert-laszlo Barabasi Artificial Life - Steven Levy The Four Steps To The Epiphany - Steve Blank The World is Flat - Thomas Friedman not a book, but the various writings of Douglas Engelbart - http://www.dougengelbart.org/library/library.html Glasshouse - Charles Stross Permutation City - Greg Egan Neuromancer - William Gibson The Shockwave Rider - John Brunner The Society of Mind - Marvin Minsky…

"How to Win Friends and Influence People", Dale Carnegie "The Black Swan", Taleb "How To Be Idle: A Loafer's Manifesto", Tom Hodgkinson "The Tao Is Not Silent", Raymond Smullyan In that order.

Black swan Nicolas Masson taleb

Antifragile - This book change my ways of thinking about life. Also this year I've read Black Swan, another great book by the same author.

The Black Swan (anything by Taleb really), Meditations by Marcus Aurelius, Letters from a Stoic by Seneca, Epictetus' Discourses, Fish that ate the whale by Rich Cohen, Man's Search for Meaning, Titan, Principles by Ray Dalio (not really a book, but really worth reading, plus it's free), 4HW by Tim Ferris, The Strategy Paradox. Also Teddy Roosevelt's biography has been very influential.

Other books that I've found helpful are the many socioeconomics books out there: Malcolm Gladwell - Tipping Point, Blink, Outliers Tim Harford - The Undercover Economist Nassim Taleb - The Black Swan I enjoyed the Steve Jobs book too, I liked the fact that he believed in what he was working on (no matter how crazy or disruptive) and saw so much beauty in perfection. There's a lot we can learn from his persistence and attitude towards persevering in the face of failure. And for entertainment, I like profound books: The Alchemist, The Little Prince

Talent Is Overrated - Geoff Colvin ( Theory from Anders Ericsson ) The Black Swan - Nassim Nicholas Taleb The Introvert Advantage - Marti Olsen Laney The Mindful Way Through Depression - Mark Williams et al. Surely You're Joking, Mr. Feynman!

Some favorites from my bookshelf: Benjamin Franklin's autobiography, Thinking Fast and Slow, Fooled by Randomness / Black Swan, SICP, Zen Mind Beginner's Mind

The one I've enjoyed the most, was probably "Surely You're Joking, Mr. Feynman" but additionally read a couple that kept being mentioned on here: * A Random Walk Down Wall Street * Predictably Irrational * Black Swan * Blink and enjoyed those too. I've also read "How To Make Friends and Influence People" and started "Lords of Finance" but never finished.

Best books I read in 2011: * "Salonica, City of Ghosts" by M.Mazower. Tells the history of Thessaloniki, informative, entertaining, at times nostalgic. * "The Cauchy-Schwarz Master Class" by J.M.Steele. A guided tour of mathematical inequalities. Very entertaining and readable (for a math book) and extremely well written. * "Indiscrete Thoughts" by G-C.Rota. Irreverent anecdotes about mathematicians. * "Black Swan" by N.N.Taleb. Maybe overhyped and at times annoying and pompous, but extremely insightful nevertheless.

If you do a search through HN, you'll find some really good recommendations. Read The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Fooled By Randomness is also good) if you want to peer into the mind of an investor. Read Hesse's Siddhartha if you're thinking along the lines of culture/religion/philosophy. Read a few Ayn Rand books if you like libertarianism and don't really care to relate to the characters. Read We by Yevgheny Zamyatin if you want an interesting allegory that metaphorically compares heaven to a dystopian dictatorship. Read Unweaving the Rainbow by Richard Dawkins if you're very interested in the sciences. I remember Sebastian Marshall recommending Musashi by Eiji Yoshikawa -- I'd recommend it too. It's pretty good, and I was especially interested since I've been doing marshal arts for over 10 years now. And read Surely You're Joking, Mr. Feynman! no matter how you think. It's fantastic. EDIT: More Books! I read these when I was in elementary school, but they still hold their value: The Giver by Lois Lowry if you want more dystopias. The Little Prince by Antoine de Saint-Exupery if you're feeling especially playful.

"The Black Swan" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Take time to walk slowly and think deeply. Walk slow enough to forget that you're actually walking.

I am a big fan of both Fooled by Randomness and Black swan. I especially love the fallacies he discusses w.r.t. human brain! I also recommend Sudhir Venkatesh's "Gang Leader For a Day".

I am also reading Fooled by Randomness right now, enjoying it a lot. Black Swan was good. I didn't like outliers very much. Tipping Point and Blink were more interesting to me.

Have you read the Taleb's previous book, "Fooled by Randomness"? I was completely blown away by it. I didn't find "Black Swan" to be anywhere near as interesting, but that could just be because I read it second.

1. The Black Swan 2. Fooled by Randomness 3. The unbearable lighness of being 4. Ahead of the Curve (Its about a student's experience at HBS)

Don't miss sivers's great list: http://sivers.org/book As for mine, Science Fiction (I like these authors so I'd recommend most of their books -- listing which ones I think are a good 'starter novel' for them): Charles Stross: Halting State Vernor Vinge: A Fire Upon The Deep Iain M. Banks: Culture novels, start with Player of Games David Louis Edelman: Jump 225 Trilogy Daniel Suarez: Daemon and Freedom(tm) John Scalzi: Old Man's War series Dan Simmons: Hyperion Self-improvement: The Talent Code Seeking Wisdom: From Darwin to Munger Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion Non-fiction: Amusing Ourselves To Death (highly recommended) The Science of Fear The Black Swan Tokyo Vice Racing The Beam (Atari history, very cool) books by Daniel Pink Guns, Germs, and Steel The Prize by Daniel Yergin Fantasy: Anything by Gaiman or China Mieville, pretty much. EDIT: links to previews (legally) available online Charles Stross's Accelerando (entire book): http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/fiction/accelera... (http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/fiction/accelerando/accelerando-intro.html)…

Non-fiction: Coders at Work by Peter Siebel and Founders at Work by Jessica Livingston - I loved reading about the founder's stories and first-hand perspectives of notable programmers. The Pleasures and Sorrows of Work by Alain de Botton - really interesting perspective on "work" and various types of careers and people that find happiness in them/work itself. Superfreakonomics by Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner - even if you don't agree with their arguments or think that the authors are all fluff, I think that their writing style is exceptionally clear and easy to understand. The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb - some really interesting ideas and analysis, although the book could have been 1/2 as short Fiction: Anathem by Neal Stephenson - starts out slow but after the first 200 pages it became a really great story that I couldn't put down. Life of Pi by Yann Martel - loved the main story of the book, the controversial ending didn't bother me too much because I don't feel like it takes away from the story at all. The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo and The Girl Who Played With Fire by Stieg Larsson - cheap fun and suspenseful…

I finally finished "Godel, Escher, Bach" in 2009, after starting and giving up on it a few times previously. A great book, but it does require a lot of time and some serious thinking with a pencil and pad to do some working out (or at least it did for me). The best book I read in 2009 (and possibly ever!) was "Fooled By Randomness" - a fantastic book that I can't recommend enough. I also read the sequel, "Black Swans", that was interesting but not in the same league. "Made to stick" was also a great book, with lots of great marketing advice that is simple to follow.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb -- The Black Swan Sun Tzu -- The Art of War Lao Tzu -- Tao Te Ching

Nassim Nicholas Taleb's "Black Swan" had some pretty good insights into the "unknown unknowns" of military combat. http://www.wajapi.com/books/80

Highly recommend Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan. also http://www.gladwell.com/2002/2002_04_29_a_blowingup.htm

-Black Swan & Fooled by Randomness -The C Programming Language -The Non-Designers Design Book -How to Read a Book -Never Eat Alone -Art of War -Bill Bryson's a History of Everything(~)