Fooled by Randomness

Empire of AI by Karen Hao. The whole world is going crazy for AI. This book brings the story of what actually goes on within those companies. Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About The World - And Why Things Are Better Than You Think (English Edition) Hans Rosling, Ola Rosling, Anna Rosling Rönnlund I'm reading this right now and I'm quite surprised by how little I know about the most impactful data on human well-being. The writing is a little bit off sometimes but still worth looking at. I also liked "Fooled by randomness" by Nassim Taleb. His other writings are good too but I would say this one is the most impactful.

That would be a long list, given that I read a lot of books and would generally say that most of the books I've read were worth investing time in to some extent. But for what it's worth, here's a subset, cribbed from my previous HN comments: Something Deeply Hidden - Sean Carroll The Universe Speaks in Numbers: How Modern Math Reveals Nature's Deepest Secrets - Graham Farmelo The Man Who Loved Only Numbers: The Story of Paul Erdos and the Search for Mathematical Truth - Paul Hoffman The Man Who Knew Infinity: A Life of the Genius Ramanujan - Robert Kanigel Lost in Math - Sabine Hossenfelder The First Three Minutes - Steven Weinberg Hyperspace - Michio Kaku Not Even Wrong - Peter Woit The Trouble With Physics - Lee Smolin About Time - Paul Davies Time Reborn - Lee Smolin The Elegant Universe - Brian Greene The Hidden Reality - Brian Greene The Fabric of the Cosmos - Brian Greene Quantum Space: Loop Quantum Gravity and the Search for the Structure of Space, Time, and the Universe - Jim Baggott The Universe Speaks in Numbers: How Modern Math Reveals Nature's Deepest Secrets - Graham Farmelo Three Roads To Quantum Gravity - Lee Smolin…

Incerto by Nassim Taleb. Best piece of work I've ever read. I'm re-reading it, and still... what a masterpiece, a mind-blowing piece of work. Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, and Antifragile remain my "Holy Trinity" of books. You just couldn't stop reading them.

A good chance reflect. There are several: - A Conferedancy of Dunces, Peter O'Toole: tragic, hilarious and absurd - Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Taleb: this was my first exposure to a lot of biases and other interesting phenomena - The Design of Everything Things: eye-opener! Harry Potter, Tolkien, Dune and a lot of other sci-fi has also affected me, although I find it hard to point out one in particular. The Moon is a Harsh Mistress by Robert Heinlein stands out a bit.

Fooled By Randomness was a really great book, I second your suggestion.

* Fooled By Randomness (NN Taleb): Taleb is a complicated personality, but this book gave me a heuristic for thinking about long-tails and uncertain events that I could never have derived myself from a probability textbook. * Designing Data Intensive Applications (M Kleppmann): Provided a first-principles approach for thinking about the design of modern large-scale data infrastructure. It's not just about assembling different technologies -- there are principles behind how data moves and transforms that transcend current technology, and DDIA is an articulation of those principles. After reading this, I began to notice general patterns in data infrastructure, which helped me quickly grasp how new technologies worked. (most are variations on the same principles) * Introduction to Statistical Learning (James et al) and Applied Predictive Modeling (Kuhn et al). These two books gave me a grand sweep of predictive modeling methods pre-deep learning, methods which continue to be useful and applicable to a wider variety of problem contexts than AI/Deep Learning. (neural networks aren't appropriate for huge classes of problems)…

The Prince - Niccolo Machiavelli The 48 Rules of Power - Robert Greene Fooled By Randomness - Nassim Nicholas Taleb How to Fail at Almost Everything and Still Win Big - Scott Adams Basic Economics - Thomas Sowell The World Is Flat - Thomas L. Friedman The Penguin History of the World: Sixth Edition - J. M. Roberts and Odd Arne Westad

I enjoyed Fooled By Randomness. Taleb's other books are good too, but Fooled By Randomness was my favorite.

In addition to the classics of cognitive psychology (Kahneman, Taleb, et al.), I would also recommend books on psychological manipulation, religious cults, and con men. The following books offer a multi-disciplinary perspective on psychological techniques to improve awareness and exploit other people, both of which are essential to enhance your perception and protect yourself against fraud and manipulation. Cialdini, Robert (2006) Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion Guinn, Jeff (2017) Road to Jonestown: Jim Jones and the Peoples Temple Ekman, Paul (2007) Emotions Revealed: Recognizing Faces and Feelings to Improve Communication and Emotional Life Kahneman, Daniel (2011) Thinking, Fast and Slow Mitnick, Kevin and William Simon (2002) Art of Deception Navarro and Karlins (2008) What Every Body is Saying: Ex-FBI Agent's Guide to Speed-Reading People Nietzsche, Friedrich (1887) On the Genealogy of Morals Rhodes, Richard (1986) Making of the Atomic Bomb Sun Tzu (c. 400 BCE) Art of War Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (2005) Fooled by Randomness Wright, Lawrence (2013) Going Clear: Scientology, Hollywood and the Prison of Belief

The entire Incerto book series by Taleb (which includes Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan) are awesome and they are talking about big catastrophic events like the current one. This pandemic is a classic Black Swan event: it's a surprise, it has a major impact and lots of experts will try to say that it was easily foreseeable in hindsight.

Ah, a fellow NNT fan! I am curious; what is your opinion of his works and the man himself? I had read (a long time ago) "Fooled by Randomness" and "The Black Swan" and the thing i remember most is his definitions of Extremistan/Mediocristan (from the latter book) and our inability to understand "random chance" leading to a tendency to see patterns and devise explanations where there are none (eg. Causation vs. Correlation vs. Randomness) I find his writings thought-provoking but difficult to understand (eg. Differences between Randomness, Uncertainty, Probability and Risk) and sometimes quite nihilistic.

• The Revolt of the Public: No book has done a better job of describing the current moment in history • Masters of Doom: Reminded me what it means to care about work and have fun doing it • Team of Rivals: A remarkable work of history and portrait of a man • The Undercover Economist • Fooled by Randomness • The Prize

Funny, that jibes with my perception of Taleb as well. He seems a bit smug, and I'm not sure if I'd like him or not if we met in person, but his books still seem valuable and worth reading. I would say that I'm better off for having read both The Black Swan and Fooled by Randomness. Still waiting to get around to reading Anti-Fragile, but it's definitely on the list.

The Selfish Gene & The Blind Watchmaker by Dawkins Evolution is the reason we exist! Understanding how it happens and why it can lead to counterintuitive outcomes is very important. He also narrates his own audiobooks and is excellent at it. The Blank Slate & The Better Angels of our Nature by Pinker Both books counter much accepted wisdom. The second book, in particular, will make you think of humanity in a fundamentally different light. The Black Swan & Fooled by Randomness by Taleb The role of chance in everyday life! It plays a big role!

Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver

Totally agree with mountbranch here. Principles is fantastic. At the same time you may read and think "sure, common sense" but then did you think that before you read the item -- probably not. I feel this is a book to keep for a lifetime. Can't wait for Ray's economics book. Cool animated summary here: https://www.principles.com/principles-for-success/ The Dao of Capital is deeper. The chapter on Conifers (yeah, pine trees) and how they exist with and balance times of trouble versus opportunity is well worth the price of the book. Also, and not least, Nassim Taleb's books: Fooled By Randomness, Black Swan, and Anti-fragile. Poetic, deep, useful, and entertaining. Fantastic. A pleasure to read and listen to in audio while driving/traveling.

I was going to say the exact same thing!

Fooled By Randomness & The Black Swan by Taleb

Not the black swan, but anything else is a fine intro. Antifragile or Fooled by randomness but work

The book I recently reread was Fooled by Randomness. Working in the finance industry, that book changed my life.

Here are my recommendations. This list is optimised to teach you the fundamentals of economics and finance, give you alternative perspectives on status quo economic/financial thinking and then equip with you with tools, ideas, and concepts to come up with original investment ideas and increase the likelihood that they are going to actually make you, your clients, and your firm a lot of money without anybody getting grilled by the House Financial Services Committee, the SEC, or ending up in jail. 1.) Get a recent copy of the CFA curriculum and do the end of chapter exercises. You can probably skip a lot of the quantitative methods material if you’re doing a degree in stats. The CFA curriculum will give you a solid understanding of all the major sub-categories of economics (micro, macro, corporate finance, security analysis, accounting, financial statement analysis, alternative investments, derivatives, portfolio management, and most importantly ethical standards for financial professionals.…

"Fooled by Randomness" by N.N. Taleb. It showed how big a role chance plays in our lives, and how to make the most of it.

The Pragmatic Programmer, Dave Thomas, Andy Hunt Fooled by Randomness, Taleb Linchpin, Seth Godin

Leave it to Psmith - 10/10 Anna Karenina - 8/10 The Code of the Woosters 8/10 Fooled by Randomness 7/10 Finding Flow: The Psychology of Engagement with Everyday Life 8/10 How to Get Filthy Rich in Rising Asia 9/10 Reluctant Fundamentalist 9/10 The Sense of an Ending - Julian Barnes 8/10 The Last Question - Asimov - 9/10 The Magic of Thinking Big - 6/10 The catcher in the Rye 8/10 Models 7/10 High Fidelity - Nick Hornby 8/10 The Ocean at the End of the Lane - Neil Gaiman 7/10 The Surrender Experiment - 10/10 Untethered Soul - 9/10 The Autobiography of a Yogi - 7/10 Raja Yoga - Swami Vikekandanda - 7/10 Something Fresh, something new - 7/10 Karma Yoga - Swami Vikekandanda - 8/10 Thinking, Fast and Slow - 9/10 Fierce Invalids Home from Hot Climates 10/10 The Pearl by John Steinbeck 7/10

I'm sure there are many, but a few that jump to mind, in no particular order, and spanning both fiction and non-fiction: The Selfish Gene - Dawkins A New Kind of Science - Wolfram The Singularity is Near - Kurzweil Gödel, Escher, Bach - Hofstadter Fluid Concepts and Creative Analogies - Hofstadter Atlas Shrugged - Rand The Fountainhead - Rand Nineteen Eighty-Four - Orwell The Trouble With Physics - Lee Smolin Time Reborn - Lee Smolin Ambient Findability - Peter Morville Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Software - Steven Johnson Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age - Duncan Watts Linked: How Everything Is Connected to Everything Else and What It Means for Business, Science, and Everyday Life - Albert-laszlo Barabasi Artificial Life - Steven Levy The Four Steps To The Epiphany - Steve Blank The World is Flat - Thomas Friedman not a book, but the various writings of Douglas Engelbart - http://www.dougengelbart.org/library/library.html Glasshouse - Charles Stross Permutation City - Greg Egan Neuromancer - William Gibson The Shockwave Rider - John Brunner The Society of Mind - Marvin Minsky…

Fooled By Randomness - Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Poor Economics - Abhijit Banerjee & Esther Duflo Thinking, Fast and Slow - Daniel Kahneman The Signal and The Noise - Nate Silver Predictably Irrational - Dan Ariely This Time is Different - Carmen Reinhart & Kenneth Rogoff Subliminal - Leonard Mlodinow Fooled by Randomness - Nassim Taleb For something more lighthearted, I also enjoyed: An Economist Gets Lunch - Tyler Cowen Inside Jokes - Matthew Hurley & others (mostly skipped the dense parts)

Fooled by Randomness - Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Some favorites from my bookshelf: Benjamin Franklin's autobiography, Thinking Fast and Slow, Fooled by Randomness / Black Swan, SICP, Zen Mind Beginner's Mind

fooled by randomness - nassim taleb. his books get progressively worse, but this one is excellent

That book is also good; and the Black Swan grew out of a section within it.

If you do a search through HN, you'll find some really good recommendations. Read The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Fooled By Randomness is also good) if you want to peer into the mind of an investor. Read Hesse's Siddhartha if you're thinking along the lines of culture/religion/philosophy. Read a few Ayn Rand books if you like libertarianism and don't really care to relate to the characters. Read We by Yevgheny Zamyatin if you want an interesting allegory that metaphorically compares heaven to a dystopian dictatorship. Read Unweaving the Rainbow by Richard Dawkins if you're very interested in the sciences. I remember Sebastian Marshall recommending Musashi by Eiji Yoshikawa -- I'd recommend it too. It's pretty good, and I was especially interested since I've been doing marshal arts for over 10 years now. And read Surely You're Joking, Mr. Feynman! no matter how you think. It's fantastic. EDIT: More Books! I read these when I was in elementary school, but they still hold their value: The Giver by Lois Lowry if you want more dystopias. The Little Prince by Antoine de Saint-Exupery if you're feeling especially playful.

I agree -- FBR is a much deeper book.

I am a big fan of both Fooled by Randomness and Black swan. I especially love the fallacies he discusses w.r.t. human brain! I also recommend Sudhir Venkatesh's "Gang Leader For a Day".

I am also reading Fooled by Randomness right now, enjoying it a lot. Black Swan was good. I didn't like outliers very much. Tipping Point and Blink were more interesting to me.

Same here, I liked FBR better than BS. Taleb himself says he 'no longer likes' his first book (FBR), but then the guy's a bit of a contrarian, to put it mildly. I should add that a few traders I know recommend FBR as the first book a new recruit should read.

Have you read the Taleb's previous book, "Fooled by Randomness"? I was completely blown away by it. I didn't find "Black Swan" to be anywhere near as interesting, but that could just be because I read it second.

1. The Black Swan 2. Fooled by Randomness 3. The unbearable lighness of being 4. Ahead of the Curve (Its about a student's experience at HBS)

Here are some books that are a mix of psychology and economics that I think are especially suited for HN: Behavioral Economics: Predictably Irrational - Dan Ariely Nudge - Richard Thaler Switch: How to Change Things When Change is Hard - Chip and Dan Heath Economics: The Black Swan: Impact of the Highly Improbable - Nassim Taleb Fooled by Randomness - Nassim Taleb Drunkard's Walk - Leonard Mlodinow Psychology: Opening Skinner's Box - Lauren Slater Management: The Education of a Coach - David Halberstam

Influence, Predictably Irrational, Fooled by Randomness, The Blank Slate, House of Cards, and Planar Microwave Engineering come to mind.

I finally finished "Godel, Escher, Bach" in 2009, after starting and giving up on it a few times previously. A great book, but it does require a lot of time and some serious thinking with a pencil and pad to do some working out (or at least it did for me). The best book I read in 2009 (and possibly ever!) was "Fooled By Randomness" - a fantastic book that I can't recommend enough. I also read the sequel, "Black Swans", that was interesting but not in the same league. "Made to stick" was also a great book, with lots of great marketing advice that is simple to follow.

Brief History of Time Fooled by Randomness

After you've read a few books that were recommended here, but before putting down any real money, be sure to pick up a copy of Taleb's "Fooled By Randomness" to make sure you have a healthy amount of skepticism.

Highly recommend Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan. also http://www.gladwell.com/2002/2002_04_29_a_blowingup.htm

Invest all of it in my startup. :) Now for real advice: First, consider getting an online savings account from ING Direct(3%), or putting your money into PayPal(2.5%)...Better than less than 1%. Second, jon_dahl's advice is spot on. The 2 tricks are to diversify and to dollar cost average(invest your money each month instead of dumping it into the market all at once)....Index funds are the way to go. Vanguard's are great...You might also want to read "Fooled by Randomness" which will make you feel confident that this is the right investment approach, and anything else is pretty much gambling.

-Black Swan & Fooled by Randomness -The C Programming Language -The Non-Designers Design Book -How to Read a Book -Never Eat Alone -Art of War -Bill Bryson's a History of Everything(~)

That book was OK, but the later parts (where he talks about CAPM and so forth) are uninformative to anyone who knows about modern mathematical finance. If you're looking for pop-math/finance books that could change how you look at the world, I'd recomment Taleb's "Fooled by Randomness" instead. Taleb is smug, but he makes an important point: people are way too eager to see patterns where none exist.

Fooled By Randomness by Nassim Taleb and Seth Godin's book All Marketers Are Liars have just completely changed the way I think about the business world. I'm looking forward to getting to The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb.